Tropical Storm Isaac threat to Florida reduced, not eliminated

The tropical picture looked a bit brighter for much of Florida on Friday, as much of the eastern part of the state has been released from the cone of error - including the metro areas of Palm Beach and Broward counties.

Further, the system is no longer expected to hit Haiti, Cuba or the Keys as a hurricane, as the overall intensity projections have been reduced.

Florida's west coast, however, still remains under the gun as Isaac threatens to produce squally to severe weather from Key West to Pensacola, starting on Sunday and over the next few days.

Whether the system will create enough nasty weather to disrupt the Republican National Convention in Tampa remains in question. For now, it still is scheduled to start Monday and run through Thursday.

At 2 p.m. on Friday, Isaac was in the Caribbean about 160 miles southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, moving west at 14 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph.

Despite the more optimistic forecast, the National Hurricane Center said a high degree of uncertainly still remains in the longer-range track and intensity predictions.

For now, the system is expected to bring 3 to 5 inches of rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph to South Florida on Sunday and Monday, or what would be close to tropical storm conditions.

If Isaac wobbles closer to South Florida than expected, the area would see even worse weather, meteorologist Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service said.

"That?s why we need people to continue to watch this closely," he said. "Don?t let your guard down yet."

Molleda said under the current forecast, the winds and rain should start picking up on Sunday afternoon and steadily get stronger into the evening hours.

"We could end up seeing prolonged periods of heavy rain, and that could lead to flooding," he said, adding that a flood watch may be posted over the weekend.

Molleda said the nasty weather should start to ease up some time on Monday morning.

"Once it's north of us, conditions will taper off gradually," he said.

?Similarly, Isaac is expected to produce squally conditons in Orlando on Monday and Tuesday.

"The worst day for Orlando will be Monday," said meteorologist Peggy Glitto of the National Weather Service in Melbourne. "We?ll have a threat of strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and the potential for a few tornadoes."

More immediately, Isaac is forecast to move across southwest Haiti on Saturday and eastern Cuba on Sunday. It is expected to arrive near Key West early on Monday as a tropical storm with sustained winds of 65 mph.

Tropical storm watches likely will be posted for the Keys later on Friday, and watches almost might be issued for portions of the southeast and southwest Florida coastlines as well, senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center said.

Isaac is projected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, aim toward the Florida-Alabama state line as a hurricane and make landfall early Wednesday.

Along the way, it could cause troubles for those attending the Republican National Convention.

Although Gov. Rick Scott remained confident Friday that the convention would go on, he said the ?jury?s still out? on what problems Tropical Storm Isaac may present for the rest of the state.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/sun-sentinel/news/weather/hurricane/blog/~3/r6HXTvKBN00/story01.htm

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